The Talpiot Tomb: What are the Odds?
Several statistical studies have been made which estimate the probability that the Talpiot Tomb is the family tomb of Jesus. These studies have provided widely different estimates for this probability. This paper shows that only a small amount of this difference is due to choices in statistical methodology. Rather this paper demonstrates that these wide differences are due to the positions the authors have adopted on selected historical, archeological and epigraphic assumptions. The direction and magnitude of the impact of these assumptions on the probability estimates is assessed.